The AV Vote. Where Is The Yes Campaign?

There will, almost certainly, be a referendum on the shift to an AV system of voting next May.



You Gov already has the 'No' campaign leading and it looks increasingly likely that Labour might be putting politics over principle in the campaign.

The No campaign already seems to be organisationally strong.  They have appointed Matthew Elliott of the 'Taxpayers' Alliance' to head up the campaign; the GMB has promised a large donation; and @VoteNoToAV seems to be a strong Twitter presence.

On the flip side, the Yes campaign, which as LabourList suggested yesterday may be battling against the odds, is virtually silent.  According to Next Left, they have a steering group (with weak Labour links and not a single Tory).  They have a very basic, very beta web site here:

http://www.yestofairervotes.org/



But, other than that, the Yes campaign seems content to let the anti reform people make the running and set the agenda.  That is, to say the least, a high risk strategy.  A Yes campaign needs to be set up decisively and early, if it is to avoid the teething troubles that affect the early stages of most campaigns.

It needs to start attempting to close down arguments against and win the early battle for the public psyche. It needs to consider early polling and where to focus its message.  It needs to make extensive, ambitious and innovative use of social media.  As far as I am aware, the 'Yes' campaign is doing none of those things.

Campaigns may not be won nine months out from polling day but they can easily be lost through lack of organisation nine months out.  The Yes campaign needs to get organised, and quickly, if it is to stand a fighting chance next year.

Will The Triple Crown Ever Be Won Again?

Once a year, the American public and media turn their attention to horse racing (and, yes, I know I'm ignoring the brilliant but ESPN based Breeders' Cup).  Every spring, even the New York Times takes to asking, 'will we get a triple crown winners this year?'  Once the first leg of the triple-crown, the Kentucky Derby has been run, all attention is turned to the second leg, the Preakness Stakes.  If the Kentucky Derby winner, wins the Preakness, then all attention turns to the Belmont Stakes.  If the Kentucky Derby winner fails to win the Preakness, then media interest in horse racing returns to a polite whisper for another year.

Of course, there used to be a triple crown that meant just as much in this country.  The third leg of the triple crown, the 1m 6f St Leger, is being run this afternoon at Doncaster.  The winners of the other two legs, the 2000 Guineas and the Derby will not be running in the race.  Indeed, they haven't run in the St Leger for many years.  

Nijinsky in 1970 was the last horse to win the triple crown.  Reference Point in 1987 was the last horse to win both the Derby and the St Leger.  These days, Derby winners don't even think about going for the Leger.  The Champion Stakes, Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe or the Breeders' Cup are seen as better end of season targets.  The extended distance of the St Leger is regarded as damaging a champion's stud value, in an age where bloodstock is dominated by speed, rather than stamina (although some of the best sires of recent years are stamina laden).

That is all a massive shame.  Flat racing all too often resembles, to paraphrase Churchill, a pudding without a theme.  There is nothing to hold public interest, in a way that Cheltenham does for jumps racing.  While 'Racing For Change' tinkers at the edges, it hasn't really proposed anything to make flat racing more mainstream and more popular.  Restoring the importance of the triple crown (with something resembling the Betfair bonus in national hunt racing) might go some way to keeping mainstream media interest on flat racing.

Who knows if the triple crown will ever be won again.  But we should hope that it is restored to its former pinnacle, in the eyes of trainers, the media and, more importantly, the public.

Dennis Skinner and David Miliband. The 'Laughing Halibut Pact'?

There were gasps of surprise and astonishment when it emerged earlier on today that the bastion of the 'hard left', Dennis Skinner had backed David Milband for the Labour leadership.


It probably shouldn't have come as too much of a surprise.


Although probably opposed to Miliband on every policy issue, from the EU to Trident, Skinner is keenly aware of what it takes to do well in the House of Commons and has opted for the man he thinks is most likely to trouble the coalition.


Anybody who has read Tony Blair's memoirs shouldn't be so surprised.  This is what Blair said about 'the Beast of Bolsover':

"In later years, Dennis was one of my best (if somewhat closet) supporters.  He didn't agree with any of my policies, but he liked someone who whacked the Tories... In particular, he used to give me brilliant PMQs advice... feeding me one-liners and explaining what would rouse the troops behind me."

So, where was the unlikely Miliband-Skinner axis formed?  





Pure, tongue in cheek speculation, but Mr Skinner is a bit of a regular at 'The Laughing Halibut' in Strutton Ground.  And, last week, when asked what his favourite London discovery was by the Evening Standard, David Miliband replied, "the Laughing Halibut on Strutton Ground."


Maybe the Granita accord has now been replaced by the Laughing Halibut agreement!

More Like It From England As Darren Bent Proves A Point

That was more like it from England last night.

After the insipid performance in the World Cup, it is good to see a much improved standard of performance over the qualifying matches.

And wasn't it brilliant to see Darren Bent scoring.  As I made the case at the time, Bent should have been selected for the World Cup finals.  That a woefully out of form Heskey was picked instead remains a real disgrace. Let's face it, he would have buried that chance that Heskey had against the USA and the rest of the tournament might have panned out very differently.

Let's hope that Bent is treated fairly from now on.

Total Politics Blog Poll - Thank You

The Total Politics blog awards, the Oscars for political bloggers, has been announcing its results over the past week.

Congratulations to Iain Dale, who has won the best Tory blog; Labour List, who have won the best Labour blog; and Lib Dem Voice, who have polled as the top Lib Dem blog.

This blog came in 32nd in the Conservative blog list, which I'm pretty chuffed about - particularly as it has only been running for a few months.

So, thank you to everybody who cast their vote for this blog and thanks to everybody for reading.  I've got little doubt that the next twelve months will give plenty to blog about as well.

The 'Eurobarometer' Shows How Out Of Touch the EU Is

Every year, the EU spend more of our money in a survey of European public opinion called the 'Eurobarometer'.   It shows quite how out of touch and distant European elites have grown from ordinary people.  Of course, we didn't need an expensive piece of taxpayer funded market research to tell us that.  The casually ignored French, Irish and Dutch referenda all made that quite clear.  Nevertheless, there is plenty in the Eurobarometer report to have the bureaucrats of Brussels sobbing into their beer.  Here are the 'highlights':

A minority of Europeans now believe that EU membership is a 'good thing'

Despite the fact that we are always told that Euroscepticism is a 'little Englander' idea, it also seems to have a fairly strong following throughout the EU.  Only 49% of people regard EU membership as a 'good thing'.  The % of people who regard it as a 'bad thing' is at a record high.  Public opinion has turned against the EU in all but four member states.

More Europeans do not trust the EU than trust it.  Only 20% of people in Britain trust the EU


47% of people surveyed do not trust the EU.  Only 42% say that they trust it.

And in the UK, trust in the EU stands at a miserly 20% (hats off to my fellow countrymen).  Check out the chart below, which has a country by country breakdown (hat tip EU Referendum blog):



The only surprising thing is that 20% seems a bit high!.

British people associate the EU with 'bureaucracy' and 'waste of money'.  The Greeks associate it with unemployment.


The pollsters gave a series of nice, benign words like 'peace' and 'prosperity' for people to choose from when answering the question, 'what do you most associate with the EU'.  To this, 28% of Brits said 'waste of money' and 26% said bureaucracy.  27% of Greeks associate the EU primarily with unemployment, 28% of Portugese and 46% of Cypriots associate it primarily with unemployment (not massively surprising given the EU sponsored deflation happening in Greece and Portugal).

This annual report is useful to highlight quite how out of touch the EU is with the citizens of Europe.  They will, of course, continue to ignore the people and continue to impose top down political integration on a hostile citizenry.

The Cancellation Of The Blair Book Signing - A Triumph For A Violent, Anti Democratic Mob

Tony Blair's book signing in London on Wednesday has been cancelled, with security concerns being cited as the main reason.  A book signing on Saturday in Dublin was marked by protests from anti war protesters.

Regardless of what you thought about the war or what you think about Blair's policies, who the hell do these protesters think they are?

They shout their nonsensical language of war criminal (ridiculous) and liar (untrue, unless you think the entire international intelligence community was lying at the same time - see Chris Mullin via John Rentoul here).  You would think that Blair was some kind of dictator figure who forced us into war.  The truth is that, after months of anguished debate, soul searching and record breaking marches, the House of Commons voted in favour of taking the country to war, after a tremendous speech by Blair.

Ironically, these protesters seem pretty detached from the democratic processes in this country.  Indeed, many of them seem more attached to a handful of tinpot dictators around the world.

You may disagree with Blair on almost every major issue but the violence of potential violence of protesters should not stop citizens from meeting their PM of a decade.  Tony Blair won three elections with landslide majorities.  One of these elections was two years after the decision to go to war. A recent poll of academics marked him down as the third most successful PM since the war.  His autobiography has been one of the best selling of all time.

It is only reasonable that people would want to attend his book signings.  It is rather a shame that the protests of a handful of activists has prevented those book signings from taking place.  The protesters will probably regard the cancellation as a triumph.

What it really represents is a defeat for pluralism and free speech.  It represents the triumph of an anti democratic mob.